I am always pleased to get submissions from Confessors suitable for running as a post. Frequent commenter James sent me this a couple of weeks ago. I regret I didn't get it up before now, because he obviously wrote it after a Cowboys loss, while we're all basking in the evanescent glow of a Cowboys win. Apologies, James
He makes a point you hear from time to time on The Ticket, so I thought it would be appropriate to run here.
Thank you, James. And enjoy the G-rated red you requested to accompany.
-- Plainsman
A few years ago, I heard the manager of a baseball team explain why he didn't bring his closer in with a 4-run lead: because it wasn't a save situation. In other words, he was letting a stat, not what's best for his team, influence a coaching decision.
If I'm allowed to switch sports, I'd like to share my theory that football coaches often have a tendency to let their coaching decisions be influenced, not by what's best for the team, but by fear of public opinion. Specifically, if a coach decides to punt on 4th-and-short, rather than basing that decision on any statistical probability of success, he's basing it on a fear of criticism. His thinking goes like this: if he goes for it on 4th and fails to get the 1st down, he'll get raked over the coals in the court of public opinion and on stations like The Ticket. But if he punts, and his team loses, then he isn't as likely to get criticism, because he did the conventional thing.
Obviously, this theory looks way off in light of the aftermath of the Cowboys' overtime loss the other night. Everyone's 2nd-guessing Garrett now. But historically, the fans, pundits and show hosts have acted differently than they did this week. In fact, I can remember a time or two when Wade Phillips took a lot of heat for going for it on 4th down.
Please note that this post is not intended to spark a lot of Garrett-bashing. That's low-hanging fruit. Nor is it an attempt to incite comments about last Sunday night's game. My theory is bigger than one game, or even one team. The question is simply this: do you agree that coaches who "play it safe" on 4th down are letting fear enter their thought process? Specifically, fear of being bashed by BAD Radio, the Musers, or local columnists? Follow-up question: Is there no longer a consensus about punting being the safe thing to do? Are we seeing a change?
Please note that this post is not intended to spark a lot of Garrett-bashing. That's low-hanging fruit. Nor is it an attempt to incite comments about last Sunday night's game. My theory is bigger than one game, or even one team. The question is simply this: do you agree that coaches who "play it safe" on 4th down are letting fear enter their thought process? Specifically, fear of being bashed by BAD Radio, the Musers, or local columnists? Follow-up question: Is there no longer a consensus about punting being the safe thing to do? Are we seeing a change?
Very telling that Norm vehemently defended Garrett's demonstrably poor probability based decision as being the right thing to do. More indication that Norm doesn't have the critical thinking ability and is too tied to decades of tradition which isn't backed by statistical analysis. I will defer to Bob over Norm 100% of the time when it comes to game theory.
ReplyDeleteBut the question is: does criticism from Norm, or anyone else, factor into the coach's decision?
ReplyDeleteIf anyone else includes Jerry, yes.
ReplyDeleteLast week at the beginning of WTDS (don’t remember which day) L4G was talking and Bob said “hold on Robin”.
ReplyDeleteI think it depends on the coach in question. Orgeron has the same risk of job loss as any other coach yet he purposefully went for it repeatedly. Garrett might have less risk of job loss due to the ego of the GM/Owner. Jerry desperately wants Garrett to succeed. The coach of his choice is nearly opposite of the wildcatter. He is going to make the safe dependable decision, not because he fears the repercussions of the public, but because it is ingrained in his DNA. His decisions are plain vanilla because that's who he is. Jerry is not. Jerry would rather risk a million on a 5% chance of tripling it vs a 95% chance of getting a marginal increase. I don't expect either of them to change.
ReplyDeleteDid anyone else laugh at Corby Monday when he didn't believe Mike and Danny about the die-hard Cowboys fans were were saying "We're Back!" He didn't think there were any of those people left in the Cowboys fan base.
ReplyDeleteYou don't hear any of that on any of the Ticket related boards but looking at some of the local sports pages, they are still out here. As many bandwagon OU and TCU fans as he is around, he should know better.
If they still took calls he might.
Correct me if I am wrong but one of the most tired if not downright annoying bits on the Ticket is the incessant FAKE Big Dick Hunter voices they inevitably do WTDS whenever there is reference to a porn star, Nooky Girl or Dick Hunter himself. It usually led by Corby with Ty Walker chiming in. Annoying "Rise" in Dick Hunter voice is a punch out every time.
ReplyDeleteAllow me to correct you. You are wrong. As wrong as a human can be.
ReplyDelete254AM Anon. Boudreaux, you might want to let us know who is wrong.
ReplyDeleteI meant to say this the other day and got lost in Cowboy Musing.
Excellent Job James. And to you too Pman for finding the diamond in the ore.
moar
Wrong in that making fun of BDH and co is not funny. It is. It always has been. It always will be. Therefore, the commenter's claim is incorrect.
ReplyDeletePac-man, need you to comment on a TRIGGERED mid-day producer
ReplyDeleteLast week they were still running Junior Miller's "we're in a severe drought, you need foundation repairs" spot. This morning they pivoted to "we've had a ton of rain, you need foundation repairs" spot.
ReplyDeleteThe Fake BDH never gets old.
ReplyDeleteWhat is old is any Gordo 8:40 bit.
Gordo during Biggest Show Coming to Town.
Basically anytime Gordo is on the air.
Once again Jones boys make a terrible trade. Anyone that thinks Cowboys will ever be anything other than an 8-8 club is delirious.
Stay hard.
Nah...Gordo never gets old! But I think we may have found Corby's replacement.
ReplyDelete2 questions regarding Ticket advertisers. There is one ad that sounds like kids singing and spelling something out. It’s like a 10 sec commercial. I can only understand I - N - G. That’s how I spell everything. And then it says restrictions may apply. What ad is this???
ReplyDeleteAnd on the good contractors list. He says “walking in integrity can be risky, but it’s worth it......
maybe I’m hearing something wrong but please tell me how that’s “risky”?????
Thanks for your support