Let's Tahk Gambling (2) -- and an MTC Challenge to The Musers

In the string to the last post, Anonymous 946 writes:

The chances George or Junior would be at a break-even level betting college/pro football punter is about .000001% Being a consistent winner is about 3 more zeros. Due to vig, it takes 55%+ to be a winning sports bettor. And that's reputable casinos, taking a chance with an online site or a shady bookie who vigs it up or throws bad square lines jumps that total to 58-60%, which nowadays is virtually impossible for even the Billy Walters and Bob Voulgaris-types (google to see what I'm talking about).

Appreciate the info, 946.  But you're not addressing my point (no one has), at least not directly. But maybe you are doing so indirectly.

If what you say about college/pro betting is correct (and what you say is consistent with Junior's statements in the segment in question), then the Musers' excellent record by the end of the year is entirely illusory and accounted solely by their high school picks.

Is that possible? Sure. Let's assume sixteen weeks of predictions. Let's further assume that in fact, high school games are easier to pick, as Junior suggests.  (And recall my thought that high school games might well be easier to pick since one is only picking winners, not points, and school dominance and won-loss records are probably very good indicators of success on a week-to-week basis, especially as the year goes on.)   And let's assume that in eight of those weeks, Junior is 3-2, and in eight he is 4-1. That's a net plus of 32 games, and would account for most if not all of their winning margin by the end of the year. 

Of course, Junior will not have a high school winning week every week, so let's assume that over 5 x 16 = 80 games, Junior is 50-30 -- contributing 20 games to his margin.   Now let's look at the college/pro games, a total of 160 games. I forget the margin of games over .500, but isn't it around 30 or so? Let's say that with the college and pros, Junior goes 85-75 -- wild guess. A ten-game contribution to a (let's say) 30-game winning margin. As noted, it is not a stretch to imagine the remaining 20 being made up with the high school picks, accounting for a nice 135-105 W-L record overall. 

What about our bets? Well, according to 946, to break even after paying your bookie you have to win 55% of the time. 85/160 = 53%. The Plainsman theory FAILS.   

What is this telling us? It is telling us that -- if our assumption about the RELATIVE ease of picking high school games is correct -- then despite the fact that they make up only one-third of the picks, high school games are disproportionately influential in the Musers' overall flashy W-L record AND their winning margin over the Unlucky P1.

Therefore, let the call go forth from MTC to those Gentlest of Musers -- ditch the high school predictions this fall and go solely with college and pro games.

Let's see what happens.