Before George Begins His College Gambling Experiment, He May Wish to Look into the Difference between "Logarithms" and "Algorithms"

Let's Tahk Gambling (2) -- and an MTC Challenge to The Musers

In the string to the last post, Anonymous 946 writes:

The chances George or Junior would be at a break-even level betting college/pro football punter is about .000001% Being a consistent winner is about 3 more zeros. Due to vig, it takes 55%+ to be a winning sports bettor. And that's reputable casinos, taking a chance with an online site or a shady bookie who vigs it up or throws bad square lines jumps that total to 58-60%, which nowadays is virtually impossible for even the Billy Walters and Bob Voulgaris-types (google to see what I'm talking about).

Appreciate the info, 946.  But you're not addressing my point (no one has), at least not directly. But maybe you are doing so indirectly.

If what you say about college/pro betting is correct (and what you say is consistent with Junior's statements in the segment in question), then the Musers' excellent record by the end of the year is entirely illusory and accounted solely by their high school picks.

Is that possible? Sure. Let's assume sixteen weeks of predictions. Let's further assume that in fact, high school games are easier to pick, as Junior suggests.  (And recall my thought that high school games might well be easier to pick since one is only picking winners, not points, and school dominance and won-loss records are probably very good indicators of success on a week-to-week basis, especially as the year goes on.)   And let's assume that in eight of those weeks, Junior is 3-2, and in eight he is 4-1. That's a net plus of 32 games, and would account for most if not all of their winning margin by the end of the year. 

Of course, Junior will not have a high school winning week every week, so let's assume that over 5 x 16 = 80 games, Junior is 50-30 -- contributing 20 games to his margin.   Now let's look at the college/pro games, a total of 160 games. I forget the margin of games over .500, but isn't it around 30 or so? Let's say that with the college and pros, Junior goes 85-75 -- wild guess. A ten-game contribution to a (let's say) 30-game winning margin. As noted, it is not a stretch to imagine the remaining 20 being made up with the high school picks, accounting for a nice 135-105 W-L record overall. 

What about our bets? Well, according to 946, to break even after paying your bookie you have to win 55% of the time. 85/160 = 53%. The Plainsman theory FAILS.   

What is this telling us? It is telling us that -- if our assumption about the RELATIVE ease of picking high school games is correct -- then despite the fact that they make up only one-third of the picks, high school games are disproportionately influential in the Musers' overall flashy W-L record AND their winning margin over the Unlucky P1.

Therefore, let the call go forth from MTC to those Gentlest of Musers -- ditch the high school predictions this fall and go solely with college and pro games.

Let's see what happens.

Let's Tahk G__________ -- and a Historic Post

Gambling. 

Last week The Gentle Ones were talking gambling.  I don't recall what the hook was, but Junior issued a statement that brought me up short.  He said that if he were in Las Vegas gambling, he was certain that he could not possibly do better than 50-50, and he was quite adamant about it.

Oh?

In the past, I have written that if I knew how to place legal bets, I would take some money and bet with Junior on all of the college and pro games that they pick in a little game they call "Picking Games Against Some Unlucky P1."  Both Junior and George are always well over .500 on the year every year that I've listened, and my recollection is that overall, Junior usually wins.  I may be wrong about that and could be corrected, but in any event both George and Craig always, in my recall, pick more winners than losers.

But there's a wild card in those statistics -- the high school games.  I suppose if I kept track of their picks and the game results every week, I could figure out how the picks on the high school games influence the winning percentage.

Then I thought:  Perhaps -- just perhaps -- I could go to the source. 

With trembling digits, I typed an email to juniormiller@mindspring.com  -- that's right, mindspring, Craig being possibly the only human still residing at that benighted domain, asking him this very question.

Gent that he is, I had a response shortly -- in fact, at 9:29, in mid-Musing.  And, I believe for the first time in the history of this site, I am able to bring you what I believe to be the first ever communication of a Host directly to the Confessors, the inquiry being -- how do the high school games affect the contest results?  His reply:

"To be honest, I have no definite idea.  I would guess that it's close to a push.  I recall one year where I got every single one of the stupid random high school picks (Fart High vs Diarrhea Central) wrong.  Our overall record might be helped just a tad by the high school games--it seems the games get progressively harder to pick from HS to college to NFL, but again I don't have the stats to back that up.

"I don't mind if you use this explosive quote."

Thank you, Junior, and traveling mercies to you and the Missus.

My initial thought was that they would do a little better on the college and pro games because of their superior knowledge of the teams.  Then I realized that since the high school games were just win-lose picks, no points, it might be easier to pick winners based on a school's historical dominance or suckitude, or won-loss records as the season progressed. 

So we haven't ridded ourselves of that wild card.  But at a  minimum, I'm going to conclude that even if the high school picks are factored out, the college/pro picks would still be over .500, and comfortably so.

Because I am the Pope of Confessors, I will confess that I do not know how to gamble.  I mean, I really have no idea whether it is possible sitting in DFW to place a legal sports bet.  Can one do it at the casinos around here?  I couldn't drive to a casino every Friday anyway.  I'm assuming it cannot be done legally long-distance.  If I knew how, I would take a large or two and perform this precise experiment.

If anyone can instruct me -- again, only interested in legal solutions -- do tell.  And don't tell me to give you the grand and you'll legally bet it for me.

In the meantime, seems to me that Junior is far too modest regarding his sports-prediction prowess.

After all, they are the professional sports predictors.

 

Email:  ThePlainsman1310@gmail.com

Twitter:  @Plainsman1310

PS:  Sorry for this incredibly crappy-looking post.  Google Blogger has primitive word-processing tools, and this mess is unfixable.