It’s Not Too Early to Ask Some Hard(line) Questions – Part 4(a)

Some Confessors are tired of this series.  Sorry.  There will be two more after this.  This one will address a topic everyone seems to want to comment on, so here goes. 

The consensus, with which I agree, is that listeners want Mike to re-up; that Mike wants to re-up; and that Cumulus will probably get the job done.   In fact, I think it’s overwhelmingly likely that Mike will sign a new contract.  

[For those of you who believe there is no chance Mike will leave and/or have no interest in a hypothetical to the contrary, stop reading now and spare me the comments asking why I'm wasting my time and yours on this.]

 But let’s play a little what-if. 

What if Mike decides he’s had enough, that he has enough bank, and it’s time to – hell, I have no idea what he’d do if he weren’t broadcasting.  I also agree that it seems inconceivable that he would move to a competitor.  Hard to catch lightning in a bottle; even harder to pour lightning from one bottle into another.  

But never mind about the circumstances.  Let’s assume Mike doesn’t return.  Whence The Ticket?

A number of commenters have expressed the thought that BaD would move to the Hardline’s slot, and Corby/Danny would – well, no one’s quite sure.   I don’t know if there is any evidence for this.   It does make some sense; I can understand why some think this is the natural progression of things.

I’m skeptical.

Put yourself in the position of the CTO who has to make a decision of what to do if Mike leaves.  He’s (could be a she, I guess) looking at his lineup and the ratings.  He sees a boffo Number 1 BaD in afternoons, and a boffo Number 1 Hardline in PM Drive.  Been that way for years.  Loyal audiences who love things the way they are.   He’s losing one guy on one show.  A real important guy, it’s true, but one who some would say is not even the dominant influence on that show, and one whose interest seems to flag from time to time.  I don’t agree with either of those as the show is currently conducted, but that thought is abroad.

Which is the least risky thing for the CTO to do? 

Possibility (1):   Uproot these two ratings-busters – half of the programming day – and hope that what would be new audiences (at least to some extent) for each show would stick with the new show in the time period in which they were accustomed to tuning in; put Corby (and Danny?) into what is (possibly unfairly) regarded as a less glamorous time slot, assuming that the only thing that happened was that they would just do a simple switcheroo, which is itself by no means certain.  That is, moving BaD to drive wouldn’t necessarily dictate that the remaining Hard Guys would be placed in afternoons.  And if they didn’t move Corby/Danny to afternoons, then they have to come up with a new show for afternoons, and figure out what to do with Corby, who is unlikely to be overjoyed at any move at all, with attendant political problems in-house.  And that same CTO may be casting a nervous eye at late mornings and wondering what Norm is thinking about his own retirement. 

Let’s think about these audiences for a minute.  True it is that many P1’s like both BaD and The Hardline and would be happy enough to listen to Bob and Dan and Donovan during drive.  But surely the daytime audience is not entirely congruent with the drive audience.    It’s clear from the commenters on this site that both shows excite some fairly negative feelings.  Some folks, who knows what percentage, have a clear preference between the two shows, and you’ll be asking those people to listen to a show they’re disinclined to like in the first instance.  I have heard that BaD has many female listeners – would they like a Corby/Danny show as much as BaD (if Corby/Danny settled there)?   And BaD is much sportiser than The Hardline – will the people tuning in to The Ticket looking for more pop-culture/guy talk after a hard day’s work enjoy SportsSturm as much?  Dan’s acerbity?  HOCKEY? 

And we haven’t considered the host’s own preference.  Bob has an admirable attachment to his growing family, and he’s making a name for himself as a hockey broadcaster – how would a drive assignment affect those things?  

You can brush off any of these considerations and possibly be absolutely right.  But remember, you’re a CTO.  You have to answer all of these questions in a positive way in order for this move to be comfortable.   

Or:

Possibility 2:    Find a replacement for Mike on The Hardline.  I tend to agree with those who say that a Corby/Danny-only Hardline would probably not work, much as I like both performers.   Impossible to find a replacement, you say?  Certainly – Mike is irreplaceable if you want the New Hardline to sound exactly like the Current Hardline.  But freshening up the sound of The Hardline and keeping these shows in place might well be preferable to our risk-averse CTO.

In this connection, let me hearken back to something I said about White Elephant Day.  I said I was listening for something and that I heard it.   What I was listening for, and what I heard, was Corby doing a very good job as the primary host for the morning show.   He was smooth, he put aside the naughty-undergrad persona, and he was entirely credible as a more mature-sounding broadcaster.  Bits were good.   I think Corby’s range is somewhat underrated and I think he could work well with any number of different types of partners, including one who wasn’t as tolerant (and encouraging) as Mike is of Corby’s snakier offerings.

One last thing:  RaGE hasn’t made a dent in The Hardline’s popularity.  But it’s still there.  We can think what we want about the quality of Richie/Greggo’s offerings, but our fictional CTO might think:   Which would be more likely to cause people to experiment with punching in 105.3:   Corby/Danny with some plus-ones or a new co-host, where Hardline-curious listeners would at least tend to stick for awhile, even if they didn’t fall in love?  Or BaD Radio plopped into Hardline country?

Don’t think about these questions as a listener – think about them as a CTO whose career is on the line.  

Under Possibility (2), who might join Corby and Danny?  I have a couple of candidates in mind, neither one of which the Nation is likely to endorse, but I’ll save that for Part 4(b).

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