Thursday, March 24, 2011

I Was Wrong About Lake Mingus -- Next Guess

Corby gave a description of the private property they were on during the Pool Party.  His description does not match the landforms around Lake Mingus.  So Lake Mingus was wrong.

Here are the new clues:

Lake is 110 acres.

There are animal pens, oil wells, hay fields, savannah-type meadows.

If one attempted to swim across the lake from the campsite, one would encounter a "thicket" of trees.  There was some debate about how far this was.  Mike thought it was nowhere near a mile -- Corby thought it was further.

There are the new clues.

Pass the beans, please.

I'm still intrigued by two of the earlier clues:  the 7:32 sunrise, and a nearby town with a bar beginning with the word "Mule."

So I'm still scouting the Mingus metro

If you check the map, go north about two miles and a little to the east, and you will find Lake CB Long.

There is a privately-owned CB Long Ranch in Palo Pinto county.

There are also oil wells in Palo Pinto county.

Turning to Google Earth, we find open fields adjoining the lake -- savannah-like, to my eye.

If you zoom in on the lake and scout the area near the shore, just south and west of the easternmost bulge of the lake you will see a single boxy structure.  Cabin-like, to my eye.  I believe that the straight part of the shore at that point is the C.B. Long Dam.  There is a road crossing the northern lobe of the lake, but I don't thnk it's a dam.

Google Earth does not have a scale on it that I can find, but Google Maps does.  A square mile is 640 acres, so a 110-acre lake is about .17 square miles.  A square mile is 5280 feet squared, or about 4.7 million square feet.   .17 times 4.7 million = 806,000 square feet, or about 900 feet on a side. 

Regrettably, Lake CB Long is not square, so forget all of those calculations.  However, if on Google Maps you place the lake next to the scale (sized to show a linear mile) and try to imagine whether you could get 5 Lake CB Longs -- scrunched into an appropriate shape -- into a square mile, it's imagineable.  Especilly if the part of the lake north of the road crossing it (which looks rather murky -- the lobe, not the road) is excluded.

Returning to Google Earth:  If you imagine the campsite somewhere near the eastern edge of the lake (remembering the location of the possible cabin) and look directly across, you will see a peninsula that has on it some trees -- to my eye, a thicket.   (A thicket on the Ticket, if you will.)  It is nowhere near a mile -- maybe between a third- and a half-mile.

I cannot find much information about the C.B. Long Ranch, except in this memorial article about a ranch foreman who passed away in 2008:  (Steve Holub, sounded like a wonderful guy -- foreman there for 50 years.)  If you read it, you will see that one of the chief products of the ranch is -- hay.

So there's my new guess:  The southeast quadrant of Lake CB Long.

Having been wrong the first time (but close, I still think), I won't scoreboard myself this time around.  Mike V would have nothing to do with a loser like me.


One more thing:  This is of little probative value, and highly circumstantial, but:  After I emailed Junior this morning about my Lake Mingus guess, I heard no further discussion of P1's guessing.   If I was pretty close with Lake Mingus, one would not expect to hear that anyone had guessed correctly (or, in this case, close to correctly) even if the host didn't name the actual location, because after a bit a hundred souls or so might have checked in to Your Humble Site and seen the guess.  (And within an hour or so I'd thrown Lake CB Long out there as well, in the comments.)   Pretty flimsy, I know, but it crossed my mind.


The Plainsman said...

One thing I don't see is a dock. Damn. Maybe it's a little bitty dock. Hidden by the trees.

cancer monkey said...

Twitter is saying:

@tjhooker74: the Ticket camp out is at the RR Game Ranch in Mingus. #the2300

Anonymous said...

Plainsman, you're going a bit nuts with this... easy friend!

The Plainsman said...

Admitted. Beats working.

C-Monk: Interesting. Means I was close, if correct. Poolville is nowhere near Mingus, however.

cancer monkey said...

The pics here look promising:

I can't check GEarth right now to see the overhead shots.

The Plainsman said...

C-Monk, I can't seem to find anything that tells me where the Mingus part of RR is. Can you advise?

I'm thinking it looks pretty ritzy and not too wild. And 1000 acres is not a lot of land.

Corby described it as a "working ranch" and mentioned hay. Of course, if it's a game ranch, he would not have been expected to mention it.

I do see that Randy Rogers is going to appear in the pavilion there -- isn't he a bud of George's?

One thing I'm not finding near Mingus is another lake that could be 110 acres. Thurber Lake, maybe, but it's right up against I-20.

I dunno. Well, I've had some fun with it today. A 7:30 AM guess of the Mingus metro at least put Your Plainsman in the game.

PS: In looking at the cabins on the RR Ranch site, keep this in mind -- the cabin Mike snuck into last night had an upstairs, because that's where he was slumbering.

All right, I've managed to exhaust my own patience, can't imagine what I've done to yours.

Shaggy said...

It's almost defiintely RR Ranch/Mingus Lake.

Pic of Corby in front of cabin:

Pics of RR Ranch cabin:

Anonymous said...

I think it's weird that Management told them to stop playing guitar. Is this thing stage directed, or what?

Also, Rhynes seems to have sobered up rather quickly between the Power Hour and Mavs Postgame.

-Anon B

Anonymous said...

Holy cow, LESS DONOVAN PLEASE. Ticket: please send Danny next time instead.

Anonymous said...

you are being downright creepy now

The Plainsman said...

Creepy? Hmm. Well, Channel 8 was interested enough to send a crew, so I'm not going to apologize for playing the find-the-campsite game for a couple days.

Actually, most of the guessing was done by about 8 am yesterday.

Have a fine weekend, all.

cancer monkey said...

They just announced it. Lake Mingus. You nailed it.

P1 Steven said...

Should of stuck to your guns...

cancer monkey said...

I'd like to thank you, Plainsman, for giving the P1 freaks like me a forum for this speculation. I really enjoyed it.

The Plainsman said...

Yeah. I only changed the guess by about a mile. I hadn't considered that the property as a whole was much larger than the area directly around Lake Mingus, so Corby's discussion threw me off a little.

However, I have decided to claim credit for being 100% correct early on.

Cue Vanderjagt drops.

The Plainsman said...

Hey, C-Monk, thanks. Anonymous is right, it did get a little overboard, but I had the best time examining longitude 98 west, looking for a body of water, and determining whether a nearby burg had a bar starting with "Mule." Narrowed things down. Thanks for your own assistance.

Anonymous said...

Anyone notice last night on the Deep Night Ticket, Rhynes announcing he's considering retiring next February?

In vino veritas?

I always assumed Mike would go down with the ship, but he's clearly thinking about hanging it up.

-Anon B

James said...

The Plainsman said...

James, thanks. Can't wait for the first remote from the Mule Lip.