Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Let's Tahk G__________ -- and a Historic Post


Gambling. 

Last week The Gentle Ones were talking gambling.  I don't recall what the hook was, but Junior issued a statement that brought me up short.  He said that if he were in Las Vegas gambling, he was certain that he could not possibly do better than 50-50, and he was quite adamant about it.

Oh?

In the past, I have written that if I knew how to place legal bets, I would take some money and bet with Junior on all of the college and pro games that they pick in a little game they call "Picking Games Against Some Unlucky P1."  Both Junior and George are always well over .500 on the year every year that I've listened, and my recollection is that overall, Junior usually wins.  I may be wrong about that and could be corrected, but in any event both George and Craig always, in my recall, pick more winners than losers.

But there's a wild card in those statistics -- the high school games.  I suppose if I kept track of their picks and the game results every week, I could figure out how the picks on the high school games influence the winning percentage.

Then I thought:  Perhaps -- just perhaps -- I could go to the source. 

With trembling digits, I typed an email to juniormiller@mindspring.com  -- that's right, mindspring, Craig being possibly the only human still residing at that benighted domain, asking him this very question.

Gent that he is, I had a response shortly -- in fact, at 9:29, in mid-Musing.  And, I believe for the first time in the history of this site, I am able to bring you what I believe to be the first ever communication of a Host directly to the Confessors, the inquiry being -- how do the high school games affect the contest results?  His reply:

"To be honest, I have no definite idea.  I would guess that it's close to a push.  I recall one year where I got every single one of the stupid random high school picks (Fart High vs Diarrhea Central) wrong.  Our overall record might be helped just a tad by the high school games--it seems the games get progressively harder to pick from HS to college to NFL, but again I don't have the stats to back that up.

"I don't mind if you use this explosive quote."


Thank you, Junior, and traveling mercies to you and the Missus.

My initial thought was that they would do a little better on the college and pro games because of their superior knowledge of the teams.  Then I realized that since the high school games were just win-lose picks, no points, it might be easier to pick winners based on a school's historical dominance or suckitude, or won-loss records as the season progressed. 

So we haven't ridded ourselves of that wild card.  But at a  minimum, I'm going to conclude that even if the high school picks are factored out, the college/pro picks would still be over .500, and comfortably so.

Because I am the Pope of Confessors, I will confess that I do not know how to gamble.  I mean, I really have no idea whether it is possible sitting in DFW to place a legal sports bet.  Can one do it at the casinos around here?  I couldn't drive to a casino every Friday anyway.  I'm assuming it cannot be done legally long-distance.  If I knew how, I would take a large or two and perform this precise experiment.

If anyone can instruct me -- again, only interested in legal solutions -- do tell.  And don't tell me to give you the grand and you'll legally bet it for me.

In the meantime, seems to me that Junior is far too modest regarding his sports-prediction prowess.

After all, they are the professional sports predictors.

 
Twitter:  @Plainsman1310

PS:  Sorry for this incredibly crappy-looking post.  Google Blogger has primitive word-processing tools, and this mess is unfixable.





33 comments:

Steve said...

Ok, I'm not 100% on the legality of this but I've been using it for a few years with no issue. Bovada.lv

There are little hoops to jump through to get money into the account but it's not too bad really. Just make sure you're happy to lose the money because that's how it usually ends up (because of the eventuality of losing bets not anything shady with the site).

Also, that's pretty cool that he responded to you so quickly and thoughtfully, especially during the show! What a cool guy.

Steve said...

Just to add -- if the government does anything about these types of sites, they seemingly always go after the site and not the bettors. They shut down all of the poker sites with US based domains a few years ago and it never even seemed to be a consideration to go after the users.

The Plainsman said...

I'm liking BaD in for the Musers this morning.

____________________ said...

BaD was good this morning but that last D (Donovan)caused me to switch to weather and traffic on 1080 during my beloved muse in the news.....

The Plainsman said...

Really? I thought Muse was good. The Liberty Tax Guy tasing story cracked me up. Unfortunate for the Liberty Tax Guy -- you see those Statue of Liberty guys dancing around and spinning their signs all over the place, and you think the guy must be thinking 'man, I never thought it would come to this,' and the poor jamoke ends up tased for his trouble.

Anyway, gots no probs with Donovan this morning.

____________________ said...

The stories were good but lacked the Gordo delivery and commentary. I'm not much of a BADD fan so I was a bit jaded going in.

birq said...

Sorry, Plainsman, I've got nothing for you about betting, legal or otherwise. I do know that Yahoo, ESPN and about a jillion others have free or fee pick-'ems for pro and college football, basketball and baseball, so it wouldn't be a monumentous task to play along with them one year.

I'm really enjoying BaDD in morning drive so far. I'm always a BaDD fan (yes, including the final D), and even though I miss the Musers, I think BaDD is a pretty good fit in this slot.

The Plainsman said...

Thanks, O birq. It's not about the picks, which would be the same as Junior's. It's about the mun. Unlike Jimmy Fallon's toddler pal, I DO like more mun.

Anonymous said...

Gambling is a snooze. It rarely leads to anything good. Only the fewest of the few actually succeed in making consistent money. LIke Vegas, it's all show and no go. Unless your idea of go is watching a horde of pathetic individuals trying to live out the moronic "What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas" motto. A boring topic.

BaD. A great topic. They did a very good job this morning. I am left wondering why they and not Norm -who loves mornings- are filling in?

Shaggy said...

Norm's in Surprise for Spring Training. I'm more curious about Rhads and David Moore filling in from 1-3 instead of The Shawn Kemp show.

Jimmy said...

Am I the only one that absolutely despises John Rhadigan, be it on The Ticket, or FSN?

Shaggy said...

Considering he only lasted 2 months in the Rangers TV booth...no, I don't think you're the only one.

The Plainsman said...

1136: I dunno, given history (if I recall correctly and our factoring out of high school games still leaves Junior with a notable winning percentage), picking with him on all the college/pro games they pick looks like easy money to me, never a snooze.

Jimmy: I do not despite John Rhadigan at all, although he takes some heat in these pages. He's got a fair amount of old-time sports talker in him, but eh, it's OK with me. I heard him and Mike R doing a Hardline once a couple of years ago and it was one of Mike's best Hardlines ever. He was sharp, engaged, talking sports. Rhads just seemed to bring out the hard-core sports guy in Mike. I didn't even mind him on Rangers' broadcasts.

Now when he and Mark Followill get together, that is one noisy piece of radio broadcasting, but with appropriate modulation, in my judgment listenable.

The Plainsman said...

I should add that I have not been able to tune in today.

Jer said...

Norm's not filling in because he's in Surprise this week. While there's no question he enjoys the morning shift, having him on the air from there from 3:30 to 8 am local time would kind of defeat the purpose of having him there- the ability to have guests like Wash on with him live.

I fully support AM Drive BaD Radio, though. It's a nice change of pace for everyone involved. And they brought donuts this morning.

As far as the 1-3 shift, I have no idea on that decision making process, but I would assume that it was at least partially a case of not wanting to disrupt Sean and Jake's usual duties again so soon. I'm sure you haven't heard the last of them filling in, though.

Anonymous Ron said...

Tense moment for Corby on the wireless - some lady started giving him sh** about the questions he asked some underage girls. Wanted to know what station he was from.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the info, Big Strong. Didn't even think about the guest angle on Norm. I'm sure it has to do with his DMN duties, but I would've liked to have seen Intentional Grounding proper, not just David. But Rhadigan is alright. He gets The Ticket.

One of these days Corby's words are going to get him and the station into some serious trouble.

Steve said...

Jeez, I just went back and listened to the "new immortal music groups" Hardline segment from yesterday (since I originally only caught the end of it) and Mike didn't know just about any of the bands. Arcade Fire, The Strokes, Wilco, White Stripes, Green Day. No wonder they always talk about the same old bands. You would think as interested in music as he seems to be he would try to keep up a little.

cactusflinthead said...

Is that what Corby did? Asked some high school girls some inappropriate questions? Dang, somebody better have recorded it. I missed it.

I like Rhadigan and I will tell you why. He drew back the curtain a bit on the relationship between the writers and TV sports guys and the tension between them. I do not recall the sports person they were trying to interview but he and Fraley were like two dogs on the same scrap. Growling ensued when the microphone appeared. Rhadigan did not back down. I think the question to him was if and when there was confrontation among the media involving him. Not necessarily nemesis confrontation, but the normal friction of work. He does get the Ticket. D. Moore does too. Big Bob undoubtedly does. Kickballhead? Well, he didn't get that name for no reason. Doocy getting into the mix has also been a Good Man Found for dry dock duty. I actually look forward to them when I hear they are going to be on board for a bit.
The jury is still out on Jake and Sea Bass. Sorry, guys. There is some chemistry to work out. Willing to let that simmer for a while.

We all know why Rhadigan left the Rangers. He sits over there on the first base line next to W sometimes. Same reason Josh is gone. Nolan didn't like either of them. Not sure why, don't really care to know why, but fact of the matter is they are gone on to other adventures. Perhaps someday we will hear more about it. But, then maybe some consultant told them Rhads was bad for TV. Oh wait, he still is on TV. I liked him, still do, even if he is a Michigan Yankee interloper.

I swore off gambling years ago. My grandfather played poker well enough in the army he sent his whole paycheck home and lived off of what he made playing cards. That 70something year old man showed me how to deal seconds and I could not catch him at it. If his old arthritic hands smoked my young and clear eyes I had no chance against someone far more practiced up than him.

Let me put it to you this way. The last time I heard a report on the pay out of one-armed bandits vs football (or was it sports in general) slot machines paid out better. There is a lot of truth in that song about breaking even. And that other one about knowing when to walk away from the game.

I kinda like how Ticket personnel drop by to visit and/or comment. Yay team.

Anonymous said...

The breaking Pope news thing is a stroke of genius. Made me lol. Good job to was ever behind that one.

Anonymous said...

If the likes of Nirvana and Pearl Jam are already fading out of view, I highly doubt any of those bands will have a lasting effect like the Beatles or Dylan. Greenday has had the most staying power, but that's about it. In fact, if they hadn't made a record criticizing Bush and the Iraq War that critics ate up because it was about those very subjects, they would've already faded into 90s early 00s obscurity. Jack White will go down as one of biggest "I was fooled by this music" artists of the mid 00s to the early teens. The reason why I say this is that none of this music is universal to the Western ear. Dylan's classic hits and style are basic blues, while the Beatles is based not only on the blues but also in a very rudimentary way the sonata form and the minuet. The ever present tonic to the major 2nd key change/step up is what's most prevalent in that regard. While Jack White's and some of the others music is based in i-iv-v blues like Dylan, the way they construct it and express it is too outre to have the kind of multi generational impact of Dylan and the other big names of classic rock.

Shaggy said...

How would you classify U2 and Radiohead's music within that framework? In my mind they may be the only two immortal musical acts of the last 20-30 years. Certainly none of the ones Steve mentioned are.

Anonymous said...

U2 is the closest thing. In fact they might be the only one. Radiohead falls into the too outre category. The only issue with U2 is that their truly universal stuff is their mid-late period music (e.g., "One"), which while excellent and expertly written, is more AC soft rock than classic rock like the Stones or Dylan or Zeppelin. Their earlier, edgier, unique music I fear will be treasures that are discovered by later generations, but not radio (whatever form that might take in the future) staples.

I know many will say I'm full of shit and it's all subjective, but the truth is, in the big picture, I'm not. There's been TONS of research in musicology and psychology about this very thing and it always points to the way music is composed and the arrangement of the composition. From early music to Baroque to Classical to Romantic to pop, there are unavoidable mega arching factors that come into play with the Western ear which define real longevity. They separate it from fashion and fad.

Anonymous said...

The chances George or Junior would be at a break-even level betting college/pro football punter is about .000001% Being a consistent winner is about 3 more zeros. Due to vig, it takes 55%+ to be a winning sports bettor. And that's reputable casinos, taking a chance with an online site or a shady bookie who vigs it up or throws bad square lines jumps that total to 58-60%, which nowadays is virtually impossible for even the Billy Walters and Bob Voulgaris-types (google to see what I'm talking about).

Trust me, if I were in a position to take your bets, I would book it with probably some reduced juice. Whatever dollar amount you wanted as well. You are better off at a slot machine or scratch-offs.

Anonymous Ron said...

Corby's wireless segment is on the Ticket podcast, but they cut the segment off before the moment in question. If you go to the Unticket and play the 3/13 show, go to the 2 hr. 25 minute mark.

Steve said...

Just in case there was any confusion, the bands I listed were the ones they played cuts from and Mike didn't recognize. I wasn't making any statement about any of them.

Radiohead and Arcade Fire are two of my favorite bands of all time (along with all the great classic rock bands). Not too much into any of the other ones. All that musical theory stuff is certainly over my head :-)

On the betting, depending on your area of knowledge, you can make some money on prop bets. The last election, for example, there was a lot of money made by people who saw the writing on the wall (with scientific polls backing up their instincts). There was enough counter betting by people who didn't want to believe the reality of the situation that it was easy money for good odds.

Anonymous said...

No confusion Steve. I was taking the ball and running with it.

Your point is salient.

Salient in that it points out that what is important to your (or anyone's) eclectic taste has no bearing on what I've been saying. And you've pretty much acknowledged it. Rightly so.

I'm only passing on industry standard thoughts on why a certain works of Western music come to stand the test of time while others fade into obscurity and eventually oblivion.

The Plainsman said...

I would like to interrupt this string to say that I will never, ever buy Kingsford Charcoal. Kingsford has now joined the long list of advertisers who think it is a good idea to portray their pitchmen, or the persons portrayed as using their products, as monumental arses. I punch out every time I hear that Texas jerkwad who is merrily grilling away who is calling up his pal in Minnesota to jubilate of the latter's suffering up there in the cold. Punch. Out.

Anonymous said...

Radiohead, U2, most of the bands that THL kneel before, are just too booooooring and pretentious. Yes, I love they type of music they make fun of. The type of music that Mike is "out" on because the drums are too out of control. Well, I'm a drummer, pretty positive I'm better than Mike, and they overlook a slew of instrumentally gifted acts.

DW said...

Mike Bacsik is on with Elf for a couple days. Much better to listen to then Norm and his Argentinian vacation stories. Once again, Bacsik needs to be a regular host. I hold he gets a shot somewhere..

Mr Les White said...

Regarding Corby on the wireless and the girls, I was in and out but I heard most of his exchange with them.

He was working wireless outside the Ticket Hovel with people showing up for Muse at AAC. (apparently Muse are Brits who had a song in the Twilight franchise.)

Corby snagged a couple of young girls with some connection ( I think) to a Mesquite High School, asking about Muse, finally asking if they were lesbians. They rolled with it, seemed cool. The primary speaker seemed to get it, stated that they weren't.

Then some concerned citizen, a woman, asked Corby live on air with the wireless, if he had made "inappropriate comments to those girls".

The exchange was very, very uncomfortable. I felt it.

THL later came back from break with mentions of "I want to go back upstairs" and Danny saying "check their drivers licenses" to Corby. Corby pretty much finished the show with his tail between his legs.

I really expected some big repercussions. Within those waters one should not tread.

My opinions are my own.

deezy said...

Plainsman - it's always a giggle to hear your reaction to certain ads. The last time you took this position was...Capital One Bank Free Checking, right?

As far as Kingsford goes: you didn't like the part about the guy whining about the snow, saying "...and there's a polar bear out there"? Visualize yourself not being able to walk out to your car because of a polar bear hanging out, and try to keep a straight face. Maybe you and I have truly dissimilar senses of humor.

Now, the Buffalo Wild Wings commercials - those are a channel changer. All of them. That ad agency needs to be fired, because I don't think I've heard a funny one in five or so years (multiple campaigns.)

Finally (since we've moved on from the last thread) I wasn't teasing SeaBass for reacting, I was just saying that some might take that as an invitation to TRY and draw him offsides. Sorry if I didn't make that clear; I understand your position about making this a host/personality/support staff-friendly environment.

The Plainsman said...

@deezy: OK. I interpreted your reference to him being "drawn offsides" as suggesting that responding to criticism was not a good move. If I misinterpreted, apologies.

You are a fine Confessor so you get the benefit of a doubt. Yes, I play favorites.

In fact, I'm thinking of ordaining a few of you.