Thursday, March 14, 2013

Let's Tahk Gambling (2) -- and an MTC Challenge to The Musers

In the string to the last post, Anonymous 946 writes:

The chances George or Junior would be at a break-even level betting college/pro football punter is about .000001% Being a consistent winner is about 3 more zeros. Due to vig, it takes 55%+ to be a winning sports bettor. And that's reputable casinos, taking a chance with an online site or a shady bookie who vigs it up or throws bad square lines jumps that total to 58-60%, which nowadays is virtually impossible for even the Billy Walters and Bob Voulgaris-types (google to see what I'm talking about).

Appreciate the info, 946.  But you're not addressing my point (no one has), at least not directly. But maybe you are doing so indirectly.

If what you say about college/pro betting is correct (and what you say is consistent with Junior's statements in the segment in question), then the Musers' excellent record by the end of the year is entirely illusory and accounted solely by their high school picks.

Is that possible? Sure. Let's assume sixteen weeks of predictions. Let's further assume that in fact, high school games are easier to pick, as Junior suggests.  (And recall my thought that high school games might well be easier to pick since one is only picking winners, not points, and school dominance and won-loss records are probably very good indicators of success on a week-to-week basis, especially as the year goes on.)   And let's assume that in eight of those weeks, Junior is 3-2, and in eight he is 4-1. That's a net plus of 32 games, and would account for most if not all of their winning margin by the end of the year. 

Of course, Junior will not have a high school winning week every week, so let's assume that over 5 x 16 = 80 games, Junior is 50-30 -- contributing 20 games to his margin.   Now let's look at the college/pro games, a total of 160 games. I forget the margin of games over .500, but isn't it around 30 or so? Let's say that with the college and pros, Junior goes 85-75 -- wild guess. A ten-game contribution to a (let's say) 30-game winning margin. As noted, it is not a stretch to imagine the remaining 20 being made up with the high school picks, accounting for a nice 135-105 W-L record overall. 

What about our bets? Well, according to 946, to break even after paying your bookie you have to win 55% of the time. 85/160 = 53%. The Plainsman theory FAILS.   

What is this telling us? It is telling us that -- if our assumption about the RELATIVE ease of picking high school games is correct -- then despite the fact that they make up only one-third of the picks, high school games are disproportionately influential in the Musers' overall flashy W-L record AND their winning margin over the Unlucky P1.

Therefore, let the call go forth from MTC to those Gentlest of Musers -- ditch the high school predictions this fall and go solely with college and pro games.

Let's see what happens.

68 comments:

apotamus said...

You have to hit 11 out of 21 to break even if all lines are -110 ($11 to win $10), which is a typical payout in my experience, at least in football and basketball. Which is 52.4 % to break even. So at 53%, you'd win, but you'd spend more to get to Oklahoma or Louisiana to make the bets (do they even have sportsbooks?)

Or you could find a bookie or do it online (you have to get up BIG for them to pay out).

Anonymous said...
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Anonymous said...
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DA said...

Plainsman,

Forget about the "stats" which The Musers have and look at all the work which Norm attempts to do to handicap both football and horse racing.

In essence, both are more randomness than an exact science. Honestly, trying to wager the outcome of a game on the attitude of teenagers is rough.

As far as where, you were given only off-shore options before. One cannot legally wager on sports in the USA outside of Nevada with few exceptions.

Nevada, Delaware, Montana and Oregon were grandfathered into the laws which prohibit sports gambling, including the 1992 "Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act" sponsored by former NBA player, Sen. Bill Bradley (NJ).

Oregon and Montana dropped sports betting but in the last year, Delaware has a new NFL parlay card through the state sponsored lottery which just started up again.

Oregon dropped its "SportsAction" lottery-based betting in 2005 so that Portland and the state universities could host NCAA events.

The Native American casinos will not have sports books because even with sovereignty from the federal government, it is hard pull off. There needs to be a staff of people to be aware of the injuries, the other lines, and the handles for the sports to make football gambling an even proposition for the house.

Plus, Native American casinos realize that a sportsbook is dead square footage. The space needed to have a sportsbook and the staff takes away from the space in which once can either place a table game or a row of slots. Think about it, would you rather have two kids taking up 12 sq. ft. watching a 3 hour game in which they bet $20, or would you like to have a slot/poker machine there for the same three hours? Take the slot 100% of the time.

Anonymous said...
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East Texas P1 said...

Moving on to another topic....

Mr. Les White (from the previous thread) Corby's uncomfortable interface is out on the Unticket as Corby Wireless 3.13.13.

It was also referenced during the Teebox / Orphanage mix. One of those OMG moments.

East Texas P1 said...

Also, can anyone tell me why random words are now being highlighted as hyperlinks? I did not hyperlink the word "Wireless" in my post but it is there in blue.

Also in this thread are "payout", "casinos" and "slots". I also see this in another blog on which I participate. Is this a Google thing?

Anonymous said...

East Texas P1

You must have gotten some type of adware or extension installed on your browser. It has happened to me before. None of the words you mentioned are highlighted for me. There are a couple of solutions out there depending on your browser. Just do a google search and you should be able to find out how to remove it.

Anonymous said...

I take it you've been away from the blog for a couple of days since 2 of the 3 deleted comments have been up for a bit now. If you're taking a more proactive and less tolerating stance on bulshy snark and insulting comments, I applaud you. Cuz both of the comments that you deleted last night or today weren't vulgar or harsh. They were the kinda bulsh you usually let ride. Hope you are getting more selective. It'll soon enough drive off the trolls, as they'll become bored. It might also bring back some regulars who've left due to trolls and it might encourage lurkers to participate.

Personally, I find gambling uninteresting. Probably because I'm terrible at it. But I hope Junior makes mention of your convo tomorrow morning. That would be pretty cool.

BBQ said...

@3:55
I concur with you on all points, brutha.

Anyone besides me notice how the ridiculing of Ferrall has become even more of full frontal assault by every single host lately? At first it was a drop here and there or an imitation. It's now become a pile on, curbing, nut punching, daily gang attack. I wonder if at some point Cat or someone else tells them to back off or cut it out? After all, the guy is on their station. Not that I'm defending him. He's a horror show.

Anonymous said...

not to mention the Siroy bros doing their whole ticketstock song on him sucking.

The Plainsman said...

355: Yes, my tolerance level for nonsense, vulgar or not, is fast eroding.

The Plainsman said...

I heard a couple of Mitchell Karasik Tickers on Satuday. I didn't hear any mispronunciations (no Stars game in the reports). He does have some articulational challenges -- I had to replay a phrase or two in my head to figure out what he was saying, but I got it. So, onward and upward.

The Plainsman said...

I didn't hear Corby's scolding. I'm somewhat surprised that some of his sassier victims don't light into him. Of course, one did, to someone who counted, and so now no more Hardline at that team's (Royals?) Spring games. Or was it a broader prohibition? Don't remember.

I heard a thing one morning about The Ticket renewing its license, and inviting one and all to stop by and see its application. I'd do it if I had the time -- might have some interesting information about complaints.

The Plainsman said...

Wow. Did anyone hear Corby's unacknowledged bear trap a couple of days ago. He was talking about some kind of gun crime, may have been the woman who killed her husband and two kids, then herself.

Corby said: "Why don't we hear any good gun stories? Stories about people defending their homes?"

I sat straight up in the car, wondering if there would either be a layout of sickening length, or a slide-right-over.

They slud right over.



Shaggy said...

Corby didn't do anything wrong in the Royals/Spring Training dustup. It was McGruber inserting a "stupid bitch" drop during an interview with Alex Gordon's gf/wife. It got back to him and The Ticket got reprimanded.

I also didn't see the big deal about the Muse interaction with the 17-yr olds.

Anonymous said...

Also recall that The Hardline was banned from the Byron Nelson years ago due to Corby yuck monkey shenanigans.

It's only a matter of time before Corby is decked by someone. The only reason it hasn't yet happened to Gordo is because of his size. He's not a small man. Corby on the other hand is around 5"10, 5"11 on a good day.

DA said...

Former OU quarterback Steve Davis passed away in a plane crash Sunday afternoon.

How many segments will Corby do on his death and OU legacy this week?

Anonymous Ron said...

Pray that Steve Davis had no connections to Neil Young or the
Rolling Stones.

Surely there will be an over the phone lickfest with Switzer.

Anonymous said...

That would be Alex Gordon.

http://awfulannouncing.blogspot.com/2008/04/texas-radio-hosts-mock-kc-royal-alex.html

Anonymous said...

1138 AM anon is wrong about how tall snake is. 6'2" maybe even 6'3"

Anonymous said...

Naw, that anon is right. I work at a neighborhood (a Good one, hint-hint) pub that the Snake, his wife and some of their friends frequent. It's a kiddo friendly place as well. He's not 6"2 or "3 by any stretch of the imagination. I'd say 5"11.

Steve said...

I was thinking he was around 5'8 or 5'9. I stood in line next to him while waiting to get into that stupid Charlie Sheen thing at the AAC and I thought he was a bit shorter than me (5'10 or so).

Anonymous Ron said...

Did I hear Sybil say she doesn't know who Matthew Stafford is?

Please tell me I heard that wrong.

(Sorry for the hijack - back to all things Ticket)

Anonymous said...

I saw Cobra at a TCU football game last year and he's definitely at least 6 feet tall. I'm 6 feet even and was shocked that he was taller than me.

Anonymous said...

6ft or taller???? Man you're either the worst judge of height ever or are lying your *** off.

The Plainsman said...

As Iggy Pop said on the live bootleg Metallic KO, as he prepared to perform "Louie Louie" for an audience consisting mainly of bikers: "I never thought it would come to this."

Shaggy said...

I'm pretty sure the hosts have discussed the fact that Donovan is the only host under 6'

Anonymous said...

Shaggy you've obviously never seen Corbles face to face. Like Ruth Gordon said about the orangutang Clyde in Every Which Way But Loose "Twelve ribs, my ass." He ain't no 6 feet tall.

Anonymous said...

Corby aint 6 ft tall, socialized with him several time, but his beer muscles, hiding behind a microphone, and high end six figure salary allow him to feel much bigger and better than all of us. Don't forget that, the man does not think much of you.

The Plainsman said...

There is only one possibility. Corby is ALL of those heights, the Fantastic Elastic Corby. The secret of his enduring appeal, he appears to each as each wishes to see him.

I hope, I really hope, that this thread is a gag. We sound like a bunch of teenage girls debating Justin Bieber's precise eye color.

birq, ars, somebody jack this thread back into Ticket relevance.

atlanta rhythm section said...

Amen, brutha man Plainsman. I'm gonna go sportsy on ya.

The Plainsman asketh, the rhythm section giveth.

I've been lovin' the spare no feelings Goose we've been hearing the last coupla weeks. You wanna talk about some HSOs! Norm's eating it up. So am I.

Some innerestin' stuff on breaking into sports radio today by BaD. I wish they'd have carried it over to another segment. Woulda loved to hear their take on some of the Ticket ex-pats who've moved on of late.

Speaking of which. . . .
Anyone been listening in on MaSS's presentation? I follow them on Twitter, but mostly ignore it them. All Bama all the time for those boys. Kinda curious if whether they've gone full on Ticket cop job, or if they're staking out their own thang.

Out.

Shaggy said...

Gordon is totally ruining Biggest Show with his "Stoopy Go Away" bit nonstop throughout the whole segment. It used to be an enjoyable segment, but he is making it a punch-out lately.

East Texas P1 said...

There were a couple of posts, now deleted, that some Anonymous posted about the gambling topic that had "Stupy Stupy Go Home".

When I initially read that I was puzzled about the verbage. Did not realize it was a Gordon bit.

BBQ said...

@Shaggy
As brilliant of a comedic talent as Gordon can be, he can be equally unfunny. To the point of annoyance. But I think we all knew that. I have a love/dislike relationship with The Student of Eros. I love the quickness of his comedic mind. I love the way he at least tries to think about deeper subjects and isn't afraid to tackle them on air. Even if, as others have pointed out, he sort of filters everything through a postmodern understanding of the world. But I dislike the bullying of those whom he knows will either not or are unable to fight back. I dislike it when he talks politics. Specially when it's obvious his grasp on the issue is woefully superficial. And I also dislike it when he sabotages a segment by yelling or clapping or constantly saying the same thing a la stoopy go home because either the spotlight isn't on him or he finds the subject boring.

T4 In Rockwall said...

@BBQ. My thoughts on Gordo exactly. He's usually my favorite host at the Ticket, but times he's a royal pain. I think he's getting on Craig's nerves, as of late. I've heard him say things like "really" in somewhat disgust. Sometimes he doesn't know when to stop.

Anonymous said...

Am I the only one who giggled when the Mayor of Dallas used both drive time shows of the Little Ones to promote his rally instead of the radio home of the Cowboys?

In other news, the new PD at the radio home of the Cowboys has lopped off his first head. Jasmine has twitter tweeted her contract was not renewed. Her last show was today.

Stay Hard Jasmise!

East Texas P1 said...

I went to have a small medical procedure done on Monday at Texas Presbyterian Rockwall. I was informed that my anethesiologist would be Dr. Salmon.

I had to ask.... and she said she gets the question every now and then. She wasn't real up on exactly what the ticket was but I asked her permission to post on this site.

She (cute, mid-30's?)was a little perplexed by the association with some neurologist with the same last name (her words, at least to some degree before the propofol started flowing).

Michael Jackson should have had her doing the propofol. (Did I say she was cute and mid-30's?, looks younger?)

slinky said...

I know Gordon can be a pain in the arse, but don't kid yourself, Gordon is a frustrated comic genius! I miss the hell out of his Quick columns. I wish Gordo would write a book.

Anonymous said...

What is up at 105.3 the Fan this evening. Since the Stars were on the Ticket I decided to see what the G-bag had going on and instead it was Ferrel on the bench on The Fan???? What is up?

Steve said...

I think that's one of the CBS shows that Cumulus took to The Ticket as part of whatever deal the two companies have. That's pretty hilarious that he was on there. Maybe it was a planned day off for Gavin (since they knew they'd be able to sub in Ferrel).

Anonymous said...

Little birdy telling me that The FAIL is about to go through some BIG changes. Jasmine is only the beginning...

Anonymous said...

@slinky What would he write a book about? How to inflect your voice and study voices in order to sound like another person? Other than that, nothing he says is very poignant. He makes quick and funny reactions to what other people say. It's a gift, no doubt. It isn't book worthy.

Shaggy said...

Gordon already wrote a book.

http://www.amazon.com/Buff-Tanner-Total-Man/dp/0967797802/ref=sr_tc_2_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1363838777&sr=1-2-ent

Anonymous said...

Oh yeah, that's write. Any good? Never read it.

The Plainsman said...

1029: Tell your birdy friend to spill it, hand it over, deliver the goods, make with the info. We need details, man.

Confession: I don't listen to any show except RaGE, and can't remember the last time I tuned that in, so I don't even know who Jasmine was/is. I'm guessing her real name is Hazel. Maybe Hazel Hicks. OK,just looked her up. Mmm, a looker.

Shaggy said...

Jasmine Sadry

Anonymous said...

I think Gordo co wrote that book with the guy who "plays" Buff Tanner. It's been a long long long time since I skimmed through it, but I remember it not being funny at all. I think he was in his early 20s when he wrote, so I'll cut him some major slack. At least he tried.

Barry Horny said...

The biggest news in Dallas-area radio's Arbitron ratings for February: The Fan 105.3 edged ESPN-FM 103.3 for second place among all local sports talk listeners as well as in the golden men-aged 25-54 demographic.

In the key men 25-54 demographic, which pays the bills, it was The Ticket (8.2), The Fan (3.2), ESPN (2.9). The Ticket was top-rated in town among all radio stations up and down the dial.

In the homegrown, heavy-hitter hosted shows weekdays from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. among men 25-54, it was The Ticket (8.2), Fan (3.2), ESPN (2.9).

Anonymous said...

The Ticket slays.

It's dang near comical the way The FAN thinks that by calling a female solely by her surname the male listener will take her more seriously. I kinda feel for SLATER. It's not as if it's a nickname or that in her previous jobs she's gone by her surname.

And double dang it, but any spot that Whitt does comes off as oily as teenager's freshly pimpled face. He might be a great guy off the air, but triple dang it, he is very unlikable on air.

birq said...

Since this is the most hotly-debated topic (and everyone's favorite without question), I have to mention that I had Raising Cane's for the first time today. My expert review:

mmmmmMMMMMMMMMMMEEEEEEEEEEEh.

The fingers had a nice batter and ample crunch, but were generally bland. I love a good crinkle fry, so I was looking forward to them, but they weren't anywhere near the level of crispness for which I would have hoped. The cole slaw, while a little on the extra-sweet side, was by far the highlight of the meal. Which leaves the sauce...

I couldn't figure out the alleged allure of the "famous" Cane's sauce. It was virtually tasteless. I had to slather on way too much for it to even register over the blandness of the chicken. Every once in a while I'd pick up a hint of black pepper, but, for the life of me, I wouldn't be able to tell you what kind of sauce it was supposed to be. It was just there.

I also had a hard time getting over the concept of a fast food establishment just doing one thing. I get the concept - do one thing and do it exceedingly well - but the execution wasn't there and I don't understand why the place was already packed at 11:15.

Given the choice, I'd go for Popeye's spicy tenders any day.

Anonymous said...

Slater chose the "Slater" surname herself

Anonymous said...

Actually, she didn't. It's a family name. It "chose" her, if you will. It's the use of it I'm talking about. If she's the one who came up with the idea to address her solely by her surname, then she does indeed belong at The FAN. Like seeks like; bad ideas seek bad ideas. She's actually OK with Elf. No need to purposely butch it up. Please see Gina Miller, Emily Jones, and Dana Larson. TAG doesn't say "Let's take it down to Jones or Larson." No, he says "Let's take it down to Emily (or Emily Jones) or Dana (or Dana Larson." Everything about The FAN is inane. Too bad. Would love to see The Ticket pushed.

BBQ said...

@birq
I too was lured in to trying Raising Cane's by the greatness of George and Gordon's "I like chicken" campaign. I too was left with a meh impression of the product. You nailed it on the sauce. It's bland as all get out. And the fingers aren't nearly as crunchy as they ought to be.

For my money, The Pour House on Skillman and Oram in east Dallas has the best fingers around. Get them tossed in their Buffalo wing sauce. Pure greatness!

Anonymous said...

@330
I'm talking about the use too. She prefers to be called "Slater" rather than Jane or Jane Slater.

Anonymous said...

For the record, FSSW will be throwing it down to her, as she's got her own show now.

Anonymous said...

What's the big deal about calling her Slater? How is it any different than Elf, Rhyner, or Coop? Some people get called by their last names. There's a lot of reasons to not like the Fan -- this doesn't appear to be one.

Anonymous said...

Geez, dude, if you can't understand my original complaint then I don't know what to say. I already addressed the diff between an established nickname and what I'm talking about. So tired of you igmos that can't read what people write and yet keep on trying to argue against what you obviously don't understand. The thing you just said proves you don't understand.

Anonymous said...

I can dislike The FAN for whatever reason or reasons I wish. So put that in your pipe and smoke it, pal. Or SLATER or whatever FAN employee this is.

The Plainsman said...

birq and BBQ: You probably both remember my original post on this critical topic, where I stated my implacable indifference to the Raising Cane's product. It it flat flavorless. I mean, did either of you guys even detect any salt in that breading? I can see it now -- Raising Cane's Secret Recipe of Zero Herbs and Spices.

And yeah -- the lack of anything else to order at the joint borders on the comical.

It's a real triumph of marketing, and I don't just mean George's and Gordon's truly genius ads. The stores are spotless -- the counterhelp is almost annoyingly friendly and engaging. And, for all its nothingburgerness, the chicken is served fresh and hot. But then, so is most weak tea.

So I don't get it, either.

Anonymous said...

Raising Cane's is frat boy capitalism. Good for them. I'm glad they're succeeding, They are. They have boxes all over the DFW area. But yeah, it's about as mediocre as it gets.

Thing is, most everything The Ticket hawks is mediocre, at best.

With few exception, like Autoflex and some others, every ad campaign is more fly by night than not. And our "friends" shill for them in order to pad their pockets. No harm in that. Specially if integrity isn't really your bag. Which in the case of most all of them when it comes to this particular, it isn't. I mean, shit, Norm does all this amazing charity work and yet he will shill for anything. Including Choose Energy. Anyone notice that not only did Choose Energy not have an important and prominent role in station advertising over the months after Norm's infamous live spot proclaimed it would, but that it also pretty much died. On The Ticket and everywhere else. Standard fare for the radio game.

Point is. These guys aren't your friends. Their word means very little. Doesn't mean they're bad guys. Not at all. But they want to make as much dough as possible while they can. However and by whatever means they can.

Anonymous said...

I think Raising Cane's is good and you're all a bunch of stupy dumb chicken snobs and you need to go away.

Anonymous said...

I'm all about lightly breaded non-crunchy chicken fingers so I like Cains. I tend to prefer things in light moderation (not overly salted, overly breaded junk). I think the problem with their sauce is that it's nearly frozen, which strips the flavor away when you eat it; it actually has plenty of flavor.

That being said, like most fast food places their product is inconsistent and their fries are too often not crisp. Sometimes when you go there you get 3 pathetic little excuses for chicken fingers (which is usually still enough for me but far from a filling meal, especially since I only usually eat a few fries).

On a different note, Craig just mentioned that The Fan Sports Grill closed. I was down there a few weeks ago and it was packed. Did it actually close? The only other time I saw/heard mention of it being closed was here (which was right around the time I was there and it was packed) so my immediate thought was that he got misinformation from the comments section here.

Anonymous said...

The Fan radio station has not been a part of the Fan Sports Lounge for several months now. They only had affiliation and little control over whatever management of the place dictated.

Anonymous said...

Somehow I highly doubt Junior gets his info from these comboxes. I've seen news of the Fan Sports Lounge closing on the radio-info board for a while now. I've also seen it mentioned on the DMN site.

Chicken fingers without crunch????? Yuck. What's the point? Just grill or bake them at that point.

We are stupey dumb dumb go home chicken snobs around here, aren't we!

The Plainsman said...

No. We're well informed consumer chicken snobs.

The issue here is the disconnect between the massive RC advertising and public relations program, of which George and Gordon are a so-far-over-the-top-you-know-they-can't-be-serious part, and the utterly undistinguished single product RC puts out. The fingers are fresh, hot, substantial, and 100% anonymous to the taste buds. Looking to get filled up, place is fine. Looking to enjoy a fried-chickeny-flavored meal, go almost anywhere else that sells chicken.

Anonymous said...

Plainsman,

Did you ever comment on Mike ranking the parts of a drum during an entire What's On Mike's Mind segment?

Anonymous Ron said...

When is Gordon going to introduce Ankylosing Spondylitis Guy?