Friday, September 10, 2010

FROM THE ARCHIVES: How to Make Money with the Ticket

[NOTE:  Listening to the Musers picking the weekend games against some feckless P1, I was reminded of this post from the early days when only the most enlightened were clicking over to My Ticket Confession.  I realize that George hung on for a win last year, but I'd still go wtih Junior.  Since George usually ends up over .500, however, it would be hard to go wrong with him, either.

I apologize for the recycling.  I'll be back with new material soon.]

First thing we need to know is how Junior and George – actually, probably just Junior – do on their football picks if you don't count the high school games. That is, what is their record when the high school games are factored out?

Let's assume their successful picking percentage is at least as good without the high school games as it is with them. Probably a pretty good assumption.

What we know about those picks based on the spread is that over the course of a season, their winning percentage is noticeably over 50%. My recollection is that Junior usually wins, although I think that as of this week he and George are about even.

So if you just bet Junior's college and pro picks – legally, of course, and only as spread picks – at the end of the season, you will have made money.

No comments: